Globalisation, Demography & Exponential Technologies to Impact Future of jobs in India

Last Updated on May 24, 2018 by Bharat Saini

‘Future of Jobs in India – A 2022 Perspective’ is a joint exercise by FICCI, NASSSCOM and EY (Ernst & Young) to analyse the profile of jobs under threat, identify new emerging job roles, existing roles that will undergo change, and a study of the potential implications of unprecedented technological advances in the new age of automation. It provides a vision of change for the job market in India over the next few years. It offers corporations, students, policy makers and educationists a consolidated view of the impact that various primary forces such as Globalisation and demographics are expected to have on the key sectors of the economy. The report alarms that the economic opportunities of the technological advancements have to be fully realized by India and the country has to transform itself to create a nimble demand led education system integrated with skill development. It has attempted to present a 2022 picture – a time when no one can afford to “rest on one’s laurels” but needs a continuous learning culture. It stresses that the time for action is ‘NOW’ for a collaborative effort from Government, industry and academia to certainly turn the challenge of fourth industrial revolution, or Industry 4.0 into an opportunity. .

• Future of Jobs in India – A 2022 Perspective, the first such comprehensive research study on the future of jobs in India, examines five sectors in detail: IT/ITES, Retail, Financial Services, Textile & Apparel and Auto.
• The combined effect of primary forces on IT/ITES, Retail and Financial Services will be disruptive.
• Business models will undergo a significant change and hence it will have a significant impact on the skills and capabilities required for success in these sectors.
• The effect on sectors such as Apparel, Textile and Leather in the short term is expected to be relatively marginal.
• India’s job landscape is in transition with a slowdown in employment in Core secthors and the concurrent emergence of new engines of job creation.
• Increased Infrastructure and Construction sector activity driven by Government spending; new self-employment models; and emerging Technology aggregator models etc. are transforming the job landscape in the country.
• It analyses the impact of three primary forces: Globalisation, Demographic changes and the Adoption of Exponential Technologies by companies in India.
• Despite the influence of Globalisation and the rapid adoption of exponential technologies, the demographic changes will have the most impact on the future of jobs.
• It takes an informed view of the future based on hypotheses developed through secondary research and their validation by experts, industry leaders and academicians through primary interactions.
• The two key factors that challenge the nation today are, the 17 million new entrants into the workforce year on year against the 5.5 million jobs created; and the speed and scale at which the disruptions are occurring and will continue at the same or faster pace, impacting the way we work and live.
• The impact of technology on jobs in India has been evident for some time in the financial services and IT area and did not disrupt the way we worked or lived.
• The pace of automation and its scope continues to grow exponentially.
• As entire families of work activities get increasingly automated, the implications on the global economy are manifold – changing nature of work, job roles being re-defined, a certain class of job roles becoming redundant leading to growth in new occupations and new roles.
• These changes are ushering in a new age of learning – continuous, agile and on-the-go, both urgent and imperative for the current workforce and the emerging pipeline of talent.
• The information technology is one of the industries that is most impacted by digital and automation technologies.
• Another important fact being seen is the fact that non-tech firms are increasingly emerging as the source of information technology roles; for e.g., automotive, aerospace, BFSI, telecom, retail, healthcare, etc.
• Over the next few years, many other factors such as the levels of FDI flow, impact of exponential technologies on offshoring, increase/decrease in overseas job opportunities for the Indian labour force, speed of adoption of emerging technologies, demands resulting from environmental sustainability, rising middle class and a high proportion of young population, would be some of the other key determinants of future of jobs in 2022.

Report appreciates that the Government is already taking many proactive steps such as Skill India, investing in manpower intensive infrastructure and construction sectors, catalysing micro entrepreneurship models and encouraging start-ups. It expects government to focus more on sectors with higher employment elasticity to catalyse job creation, effect reforms in education and skills to create a large Industry 4.0 compliant workforce, and create enabling policies to drive rapid industry adoption of Industry 4.0 technologies. It expects industry to focus on rapidly restructuring their business models in light of these technologies to ensure competitiveness and also to drive large scale reskilling of the existing workforce.

While some may call it crystal gazing on what the future world may look like, but the views in this report are based on opinions of some of the leading industry leaders, industry associations and academicians in India. This report will be useful for policy makers, corporations, as well as education and skilling institutes. This report should also be relevant for parents and students to help them better appreciate opportunities as well as challenges in the near future.