BJP’s Sixth Straight Win in Gujarat is a Big Victory as it beats Five Term Anti-Incumbency

Last Updated on December 19, 2017 by Bharat Saini

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lead by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and party President Amit Shah has won elections in Gujarat for the sixth time winning 99 seats – 54.4% of the total 182 seats and got 49.1% vote share. It faced a tough battle against a renewed Congress that got 80 seats – 43.96% of total seats and 41.4% vote share, under the leadership of newly elected party president Rahul Gandhi, and others/independents got remaining 3 seats. The BJP, though got a majority mandate, has currently been reduced to double digits from 115 in 2012 Assembly elections and is down by 16 seats, whereas Congress has got 19 seats more than 2012. Campaigning in Gujarat, both by the BJP and the Congress, was high-pitched and bitterly-fought. Prime Minister Modi’s blistering campaign in every district of the State, 34 rallies in 15 days and the reinforcement of his connect with the people of Gujarat was an important factor. Modi’s rhetoric was successful in intervening in the campaign at the most crucial juncture.

• Electoral victory of the BJP reinforces that Prime Minister Narendra Modi remains the most potent weapon in its armoury.
• Results in Gujarat has conformed to that view, with the Congress having improved on its 2012 tally, but still resigned to being the Opposition in the State
• Vote share of BJP has increased by 1.25% from 47.85% in 2012 to 49.1% in 2017
• Vote share of Congress has increased by 2.47% from 38.93% in 2012 to 41.4% in 2017
• BJP’s micro management and formidable electoral machinery was in top form in these polls as it had completed its booth committees by June.
• Statement by senior Congressman Mani Shankar Aiyar using the word neech (low) in the middle of the campaign gave a golden opportunity to the BJP to turn the focus of the narrative on Modi’s humble origins and his self-made political career.
• These elections have thrown up another winner: NOTA (None Of The Above) as over 5 lakh voters of the state chose to press the NOTA button during the elections and this vote share of NOTA in Gujarat elections, which stands at almost 1.8% of the electorate is higher than that of parties such as the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), the Bhartiya Tribal Party (BTP) and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP).
• BJP has won all the 16 seats in Surat, the hub of grievances against the GST, shows that it was not a factor in these polls. GST was an issue in its first two months of implementation and steps taken by the government in this regard helped pacify the angry traders.
• Congress has been able to make inroads in the Kutch-Saurashtra belt.
• Congress reaped the harvest of the Patidar revolt, gaining as many as 18 new Saurashtra seats and about 30 overall in a straight belt from Rajula at the southern tip of the peninsula to Dasada in the north
• Congress benefitted with support of caste poll bearers Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakore and Jignesh Mevani
• Congress gained 17 seats in rural areas and BJP is down by 14 seats there.
• BJP has managed to retain an urban support base, winning 55 of 73 urban seats.
• The only parallel for BJP’s Gujarat ascendancy in the post-Janata phase is with the Left Front’s three-decade long rule in West Bengal, although both models are strikingly different.
• BJP’s sixth straight win in Gujarat is a big victory for the party as to beat a five term anti-incumbency is not a small thing.

According to Modi:

• “These results show that the country is ready for reform, and rewards performance and is keen to be transformed. It shows that the people have rejected divisive and casteist politics and chose development and progress instead.
• Aspirations of India’s middle class are really high today. There was a time when people were content with what they had. Today’s India walks with new dreams in their eyes, has new hope. And they show that if you don’t perform, if you indulge in misdeeds, people won’t accept you in five years.
• Gujarat elections are an unprecedented election in BJP’s history. Today, if any government returns after 5 years, it is considered a big win in editorials. Any government coming back to power has been a huge event in the last 30 years. Gujarat is unique. It fights 12 elections in a row and it wins all of them. These consecutive victories and that too only based on development and good governance shows a new direction in India’s politics
• The truth is that in May 2014 after the national elections, there has been an environment of development, there has been a hunger for development. Development has become a priority for my government.

Casteism was so prevalent in Gujarat that it took workers like us 30 years to free Gujarat from its clutches. But some people, out of hunger for power, in the last few months tried to sow the seeds of casteism again. But people of Gujarat rejected them, for this they deserve congratulations. However, people of Gujarat will need to be more cautious about divisive politics and caste-based politics from now on. They have to be careful not to fall in that trap.”